转自ECO论坛

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

Chinese torture
中国式拷问
Jun 5th 2008       2008年6月5日
From The Economist print edition  经济学人印刷版

Translated by Kevin.Ren from www.mylingo.cn

The European Union may find dealing with the Middle Kingdom trickier than it expects
欧盟也许发现与中央帝国打交道要比料想的棘手得多。


IN THIS Olympic summer, expect to hear a lot about the century of China's rise and America's decline. That sounds like good news for the European Union, and all who dream of a “multipolar” order in which European wealth counts as much as American military might. China's rulers say they want economic development and a peaceful world in which no “hegemon” can throw its weight around. (Just do not ask too much about China's rising defence spending, or its contempt for freedoms that the EU holds dear.) Right on cue, two new publications have appeared, examining deepening ties between the EU and China—and what they may mean for America.

在这一奥林匹克之夏，你势必将会听到许多议论：这个世纪中国将崛起，而美国会衰落。对于欧盟以及所有梦想着建立一个欧洲的财富和美国的军事实力具有同样的影响力的“多极”秩序的人们来说，这听起来像是个好消息。中国的统治者说他们想要经济发展，想要一个没有“霸权”四处耀武扬威的和平世界。（只不过对于中国不断攀升的军事支出，抑或其对欧盟极其珍视的各类自由的鄙视不要追问太多。）恰在此时，两部新的出版物刚刚面世，这两部书审视欧盟与中国不断加深的联系，以及这种联系对于美国意味着什么。

“Can Europe and China Shape a New World Order?” asks a pamphlet from the Centre for European Reform (CER), a London-based think-tank. It urges EU leaders to make the case to China for a world based on rules and multilateral co-operation. American policymakers are the target of “China-Europe Relations”, a report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, which warns them to pay more (or even some) attention to burgeoning EU-China ties that could, if mishandled, cause a transatlantic “rift over China”.

“欧洲和中国能够塑造一种崭新的世界秩序吗?” 位于伦敦的一家智库欧洲改革中心（CER）编撰的一本小册子提出了这一问题。该书敦促欧盟领导人向中国阐明建立一个基于规则以及多边合作的世界之利害关系。美国的那些政策制定者们是《中欧关系》这份报告的目标受众，该报告出自位于华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心（CSIS），这份报告警告美国的政策制定者要更加密切的留意（或者说要留意）迅速发展的中欧关系，这种关系一旦处理不当，会让大西洋两岸因为中国问题产生纷争。

Europe and China do have things in common. Many Europeans are “rather relaxed” about America losing its status of unchallenged global superpower, says the CER report, with nice understatement. The EU is already China's largest trade partner, with two-way flows topping euro 300 billion ($440 billion) in 2007 (with the balance overwhelmingly in China's favour). As an exporter of manufactured goods, China should share Europe's interest in world economic governance and harmonised regulations—unlike, say, resource exporters such as Russia, which could sell gas and oil even in a lawless world.

欧洲与中国的确有许多相似之处。美国正在丧失其在世界上无可匹敌的超级大国地位，许多欧洲人对此“相当的惬意”，CER的报告极其轻描淡写地做如许表述。欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴，双边贸易额在2007年已突破3000亿欧元（4400亿美元）（中国享有巨额贸易顺差），作为制成品出口国，中国应该同欧盟一道关注世界经济治理以及规则的协调性，这一点与像俄罗斯这样的能源出口国有所不同，这些国家即使是在一个乱无法纪的世界中照样能够出售天然气与石油。

China and Europe do not see each other as a military threat. America maintains troops and security alliances all around China's rim, and would be expected to defend Taiwan in the event of attack from the mainland. Most Europeans barely know that Taiwan exists, and when their governments do mention that embattled island, it is to chide it for “provoking” China with dangerous notions like democracy. Although in theory China, Europe and America are determined Iran should not go nuclear, China and some European governments often seem keener on trading with Iran than in curbing its weapons ambitions.

中国与欧洲并没有将彼此视为军事威胁。美国的军队以及它组成的各种安保联盟遍布于中国四周，一旦大陆对台湾动武，美国预期会对其加以保护。大多数欧洲人几乎不知道台湾的存在，当政府真的提及这个四面楚歌的岛屿时，那是在斥责它用像民主这类危险的理念“冒犯”大陆。虽然在理论上中国，欧洲以及美国都坚定的认为伊朗不应该成为核国家，但是与遏制伊朗的核武雄心比较起来，中国和一些欧洲政府似乎更热衷于与其发展贸易往来。

There is another common area. Whereas many Americans have in recent years seen the “war on terror” as an existential fight that overshadows all else, the Europeans and Chinese talk about terrorism as just one item in their leaders' in-trays. Even a love of talking unites mandarins from Beijing and Eurocrats from Brussels. The EU now has 27 sectoral agreements and “dialogues” with China (with three more on the way), dealing with everything from human rights to co-operation in space.

还有另一个共同的领域。近几年来许多美国人将“反恐战争” 视为一场生死攸关的斗争，没有什么比这更重要，而欧洲人和中国人在谈论恐怖主义时，仅仅是将其视为他们的领导人需要处理的众多事务中的一个。甚至对于会谈的钟爱也将北京的大员们和布鲁塞尔那些欧盟官员联结在一起。现在欧盟与中国有着27个部门性协定和“对话”（马上还会增加三个），从人权到太空合作无所不谈。

So should America be worried? In a word, no. It is true that China talks about multilateralism a lot, and under outside pressure has been a bit more willing than it was to put pressure on pariah states such as North Korea, Myanmar and Sudan. But multilateralism means different things to Chinese and Europeans. At a recent two-day meeting of European, American and Chinese foreign-policy types, the Chinese made clear that sovereignty and stability trump all other concerns. Europe, in contrast, is founded on the very idea of pooled sovereignty.

如此说来美国应该为此担忧吗？一言以蔽之，没必要。的确，中国现在经常谈论多边合作主义，而且在外界的压力之下它比以往更愿意对诸如朝鲜，缅甸以及苏丹这样的贱民国家施加压力。但是对于中国人和欧洲人来说，多边合作主义的含义是不一样的。来自欧洲，美国以及中国方面的外交政策界人士最近举行了一场为期两天的会议，中国人清楚表明主权和稳定压倒其他一切关切。相比之下，欧洲正是基于主权共储共享这一理念建立起来的。

European attitudes to China could change quite quickly. Take the Olympics. European protests against a Chinese-organised torch relay provoked deep anger in China (and the nationalist tone of that anger caused matching dismay in Europe). Once the games begin, America will probably be knocked off the top of the medal tables by China. That will be a shock to American pride. But if Chinese delight turns to nationalist swagger, that risks turning European stomachs (just as surely as victory chants of “U-S-A, U-S-A” did in previous games).

欧洲对于中国的态度可能会迅速改变。以奥运会为例，欧洲人针对中国组织的火炬接力的抗议活动激起了中国人极度的愤慨（同样这种愤怒中包含的民族主义腔调也让欧洲深感不安）。一旦奥运会开始，美国或许会被中国从奖牌榜的榜首位置上驱赶下来。对于美国的自尊心来说这将是一次沉痛的打击。但是如果中国的雀跃之情转化为民族主义式的自鸣得意，那很可能会让欧洲人大倒胃口（势必会和前几届奥运会上那些高呼“U-S-A, U-S-A”的胜利口号产生类似的效果）。

A far more substantial falling-out between Europe and China could be in store because of climate change. If terrorism has been seen by some Americans as an existential threat, climate change has arguably acquired the same status in Europe. And as tensions across the Atlantic have shown, people who feel their existence threatened find it hard to forgive others who disagree. The next American president is likely to be far more co-operative over tackling climate change than George Bush. But China's position is ambivalent: it is committed to tackling global warming, amid soaring carbon emissions, but it is also a developing country, with much growing to do (see article).

更具实质意义的中欧失和可能会由于气候变暖的问题而变得不可避免。如果说恐怖主义一直以来被美国人视作事关生死的威胁，那么气候变暖这一问题据称在欧洲也获得相同的地位。如同大西洋两岸的紧张局势所显示的那样，感到自身的生存受到威胁的民众发现要宽恕那些与其意见相左的人真的很难。美国的下任总统在应对气候变化上很可能要比乔治布什合作得多。但是中国的立场依然模棱两可：面对不断飙升的碳排放，中国致力于解决全球变暖问题，但是它还是一个发展中国家，还需要增长。

Whose carbon is it anyway?
究竟是谁的碳？

European countries, led by manufacturing powers such as Germany, France or Italy, are already spoiling for a carbon-tinged trade fight with China. An EU deal to reduce carbon emissions is due to be agreed later this year, and it will impose big costs on European industry. At a summit in March there were demands for action against imports from countries that do not impose binding limits on carbon: some called for “green” import tariffs, others for making foreigners buy EU emissions permits.

由德国，法国和意大利这些制造业大国领衔的欧洲国家现在一门心思地想和中国打一场带有碳味的贸易战。预计今年晚些时候欧盟将就碳排放达成协议，这将使欧洲的制造业承受巨大的成本。在三月份举行的一次峰会上，有人提出要对那些没有对碳排放施加约束性限制的国家的进口物资采取措施：有些人号召征收“绿色”进口关税，还有些人认为应该让外国人购买欧洲的排放许可证。

Yet Chinese voices offer a counter-argument. If China is emitting ever more carbon, that is partly because it has become the workshop of the world. A hefty chunk of Chinese emissions (estimates of 30% or more are bandied about) is “embedded” in goods that are exported, often by multinational companies. In other words, many Chinese factories are really emitting European (or American) carbon. The likely response from EU leaders is not hard to guess: if that is European carbon, then those must have been European jobs.

然而中国方面对此有不同意见。如果说中国现在排放的碳化物比往日多一些，部分原因是由于它已经成为世界工厂。中国排放的一大块（传言预计有30% 抑或更多）“根植于”出口货物，而且经常是那些跨国公司的出口物。换句话说，许多中国工厂现在其实是在排放原本属于欧洲（抑或美国）的碳化物。欧盟领导人对此的反应不难推测：如果说那是欧洲的碳化物，那么其中包含的就业机会也肯定是属于欧洲人的。

Put globalisation, jobs and climate change into the same dispute, and you have the makings of a nasty trade fight. Before too long, Europeans may miss the days when American “hyperpower” was all they had to worry about.

如果同时辩论全球化，就业以及气候变暖，那么一场丑陋的贸易战所需的各类元素已经齐备。不用过太久，欧洲人或许会怀念那些只需担忧美国“超权”的逝去的日子。